44
Days
TALKS FAIL
Status
3,636+
HRANA killed
2,020+
Lebanon
$100+
Oil
Blockade
Hormuz
War Calendar
D43Apr 11
Coalition
—120
Iran
-33%14
Oil
—$0
Gold
—$0
Flights (ME)
—0
S&P
—0
GCC
—0
D44Apr 12
Coalition
-17%100
Iran
-43%8
Oil
—$0
Gold
—$0
Flights (ME)
—0
S&P
—0
GCC
—0
LIVE — D31
D44 — Apr 12
★ ISLAMABAD TALKS COLLAPSE after 21 hours. Vance: 'no agreement — bad news for Iran.' Iran FM: 'gaps on several major issues.' Sticking points: nuclear weapon commitment, Hormuz sovereignty, Lebanon inclusion, sanctions timeline. No next round scheduled.
The National·Newsweek·CNBC·Gulf News·YNetD44 — Apr 12
★ TRUMP ORDERS HORMUZ BLOCKADE: 'US Navy will IMMEDIATELY begin BLOCKADING any and all Ships entering or leaving Hormuz.' Will interdict every vessel that paid Iran's toll. Will destroy IRGC mines. Tehran billboard: 'The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.'
Bloomberg·CNBC·Al Jazeera·NBC·CBS·JPostD43 — Apr 11
ISLAMABAD: 21hr marathon. US: Vance + Witkoff + Kushner. Iran: Araghchi + Ghalibaf. Pakistan: PM Sharif + Army Chief Munir. US demands 'fundamental commitment' Iran won't develop nuclear weapon. Iran demands Lebanon guarantees + sanctions relief BEFORE nuclear concessions.
OPB·CNN·Al Jazeera·NBC·WashPostD43 — Apr 11
US NAVY ENTERS HORMUZ: USS Frank E. Peterson + USS Michael Murphy transit strait — FIRST US warships since Feb 28. Mine-clearing begins. CENTCOM: 'establishing new safe passage for maritime industry.' Iran denies reports, threatens unauthorized ships.
Al Jazeera·Fortune·JPost·Military Times·HotAirD43 — Apr 11
RUSSIA/CHINA: Russia + China VETOED Bahrain Hormuz resolution at UN Security Council — Nebenzia: 'portrays Iranian actions as sole source of tensions.' Lavrov welcomes ceasefire, 'ready to assist.' China played 'quiet but crucial role' persuading Tehran (NYT).
UN News·Pravda·Lavrov·CNBC·WashPost·Irish TimesD43 — Apr 11
TRUMP: 'Iranians don't realize they have no cards, other than short-term extortion using international waterways.' 'Iranian leadership is only alive to negotiate.' Curse-filled rant after F-15E rescue: 'Open the Fuckin' Strait.' 3 deadlines given and delayed (PBS count).
JPost·NPR·PBS·Slate·WashPostD43 — Apr 11
LEBANON: IDF strikes 200 targets Fri/Sat. 5 IDF divisions deployed in S. Lebanon ground ops across 12+ locations. 2 soldiers moderately wounded. Hezbollah fires 30+ rockets into N. Israel. Lebanon: 10 killed incl 3 emergency workers + 8 State Security agents in Nabatiyeh.
Times of Israel·Haaretz·NBCD42 — Apr 10
OIL: Brent rebounds to ~$100/bbl (from $94 ceasefire low). Goldman Sachs: $120/bbl Q3 if Hormuz stays shut. Dated Brent spot above $120. Only 2 tankers (1 Iranian) transited since ceasefire. ADNOC CEO Al Jaber: strait STILL NOT OPEN — 'Iran restricting and conditioning traffic.'
OilPrice·Goldman Sachs·Benzinga·NBC·CNBCD42 — Apr 10
GOLD: $4,751/oz (down 0.24% D42). Up 2% on week — rate cut expectations + safe-haven demand vs inflation fears. Ceasefire eased oil inflation concern but Lebanon fighting + Hormuz closure keeping demand elevated.
TradingEconomics·Fortune·Natural Resource StocksD42 — Apr 10
GAS: National avg ~$3.75-$4.04/gal (varying by state). NY: $4.04, FL: $3.97, TX: $3.75. Down from peak $4.08 but still elevated. EIA forecasts sustained high prices if Hormuz remains constrained.
SmartAsset·EIA·Finder·DrMattLynchD42 — Apr 10
STOCKS: S&P 500 +3.6% weekly (best since Nov). Dow +3.0%. Nasdaq +4.7%. CNBC: 'S&P nearly erases entire Iran war loss.' But D42 Friday: S&P -0.11%, Dow -269pts as ceasefire doubts grow. Market 'more optimistic than oil.'
CNBC·Yahoo Finance·TheStreet·IBTimesD41 — Apr 9
AIR: Total US aircraft losses in war — F-15E (shot down D35, crew rescued), A-10 (shot down D36, pilot rescued), 2x MC-130J ($100M+ each, self-destroyed D37), 24 MQ-9 Reapers lost (8 in D33-D41 alone), MQ-4C Triton lost contact D41. CENTCOM: 12,300 targets, 13,000 combat flights, 26 aircraft types used.
Wikipedia·Middle East Monitor·Kurdistan24·Stars & StripesD41 — Apr 9
SEA: USS Frank E. Peterson + USS Michael Murphy prepare for Hormuz transit. 187 tankers with 172M barrels trapped (Kpler). IRGC toll: $2M/vessel, $20M/day revenue. Iran permitted 8 nations. Hormuz: effectively at standstill despite ceasefire.
CNN·NBC·Gulf News·Kpler·Supply Chain MagazineD41 — Apr 9
CASUALTIES CUMULATIVE: Iran HRANA: 3,636+ killed (1,701 civilian, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified). Iran Int'l: 4,700+ security forces. Lebanon: 2,020+ killed, 6,436 wounded. Israel: 23 killed. US: 15 KIA + 2 non-combat + 290 wounded. GCC: 30+ killed.
Wikipedia Casualties·HRANA·Iran International·CENTCOMD41 — Apr 9
IRAN TOTAL PROJECTILES: ~2,410 BMs + ~3,560 drones in first 10 days alone. UAE cumulative: 537 BMs, 2,256 drones, 26 cruise intercepted. Rate collapsed 92% from D1 peak (480 BMs → ~25/day). Still capable of 15-30 BMs + 50-100 drones/day (Soufan Center).
JPost·Al Jazeera·Soufan Center·CNN·NBC DataD40 — Apr 8
OPERATION ETERNAL DARKNESS: Israel's largest Lebanon strike — 50 jets, 160 bombs, 100 targets in 10 MINUTES. 357 killed (IDF: 180 Hezbollah). Corniche al-Mazraa: charred bodies at busiest intersection. Beqaa funeral: 10 mourners killed. Cemetery in Shmestar hit. Lebanon: 'Black Wednesday.' 1,165+ wounded.
Wikipedia·Amnesty·Times of Israel·WANA·CBC·Middle East EyeD40 — Apr 8
CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS D40: Kuwait 28 drones targeting oil/power (severe material damage at KPC/energy ministry). UAE 17 BMs + 35 drones (2 Emirati + 1 Indian injured at Habshan). Saudi 9 drones. Bahrain 2 injured in Sitra from drone shrapnel. Qatar intercepted 7 BMs + drones. IRGC denies launching anything since truce.
CNBC·Times of Israel·Al Jazeera·Al Arabiya·The NationalD40 — Apr 8
OIL CRASH: WTI -16.4% to $94.41. Brent -13.3% to $94.75. Biggest single-day drop since April 2020. Dow surges 1,100-1,300 pts. S&P +2.5% (best day in a year). Russell 2000 +3.0%. But rebounds within 48h as ceasefire doubts grow.
CNBC·NBC·PBS·CNN·FortuneD39 — Apr 7
★★★ THE TURNING POINT — CEASEFIRE. AM: Trump 'a whole civilization will die tonight' (nuclear fears). All day: strikes intensify — Kharg Island AGAIN, 3 Tehran airports hit, railway bridges, Rafi-Nia Synagogue 'completely destroyed,' South Pars petrochemical struck, Shiraz petrochemical. Iran: restraint on Gulf oil 'no longer applies.' THEN 6:32 PM ET: 2-WEEK CEASEFIRE. Pakistan PM Sharif brokered. Iran 10-point proposal. Vance/Witkoff/Kushner negotiated.
NBC·Time·CNBC·CBS·WashPost·Al Jazeera·CNN·Military TimesD38 — Apr 6
DEADLINE DAY: Trump press conference — 'Every bridge decimated by 12 o'clock tomorrow night, every power plant burning, exploding, never to be used again. Complete demolition.' Iran rejects 45-day ceasefire. Vance as US interlocutor via Pakistan. Trump: 'I don't know if I'm winding down or escalating.'
NPR·CNN·CBS·NBC·WashPost·PBS Theater — 16 Countries
Coalition Iran+Proxy GCC Target
Daily Hits — Coalition vs Iran
Per-day targets/projectiles. Shows intensity decline over 31 days.
Coalition (US+IDF) Iran (all theaters)
Cumulative Hits — Running Total
Total targets/projectiles since D1. Coalition outpaces Iran ~5:1.
Coalition: ~23,400 Iran: ~4,900
Correlation Compare
Line A (solid)
vsLine B (dashed)
Oil Price Coalition
Solid: % change from pre-war ($68) · Dashed: Intensity index: 100 = D1 peak, 0 = no strikes
Hormuz Shipping
PARTIALLY OPENStranded
3,000+
Reduction
95%
Brent
$113
Flow
~3/day
was 60-80
D31POLICYBrent crude at $113-115. Witkoff negotiations may include Hormuz reopening as key term.
D30PARTIAL~15 vessels have transited since partial opening began D25 — thousands still waiting. Qatar LNG carriers prioritized.
D27GULF →First Qatar LNG carrier departs Ras Laffan since D18 — resumes exports after 9-day halt.
D18INCIDENTSouth Pars gas field struck by Israel → Ras Laffan LNG terminal operations disrupted. Qatar's entire LNG supply chain at risk.
D1-D17BLOCKEDQatar LNG carriers (Ras Laffan → Asia) halted. Qatar is world's #2 LNG exporter — all carriers blocked at Hormuz.
D29INCIDENTSaudi Arabia destroys 8 Iranian drones over Eastern Province — same day as Hormuz transits
24-Hour Strike Clock
When strikes land (Iran local time). Based on 35 logged strikes with verified timestamps.
Coalition(13)Iran(22)
NIGHT
MORNING
AFTERNOON
EVENING
3
3
4
3
00..03..06..09..12..15..18..21..
Coalition Peak
02:00-06:00
Pre-dawn stealth window. B-2 bunker busters, Tomahawk waves, assassinations. Iran's air defenses weakest at night.
Iran Peak
07:00-09:00
Morning barrages for max disruption. D1: 88 BMs + 160 drones at 07:30. Evening cluster attacks on Israel most lethal.
By Country
Iran
12
Israel
10
Kuwait
3
UAE
2
Qatar
2
Saudi Arabia
2
Oman
2
Night Morning Afternoon Evening
Escalation Ladder
How the war has escalated through distinct phases. Each rung = a threshold crossed that cannot be un-crossed.
10
Energy grid destroyedNOT YET
Apr 6 deadline: Trump threatens all power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, desalination.
11
Ground forces enter IranNOT YET
Pentagon planning 'weeks of ground operations.' Polymarket: 71% odds by Apr 30.
9
Civilian infrastructure destructionD34-35 (Apr 2-3)CURRENT
B1 bridge destroyed (8 dead, 95 wounded). Medical centers hit. Trump: 'Stone Ages.' IRGC threatens retaliatory Gulf bridge strikes.
8
Ground invasion signalsD31-33 (Mar 30-Apr 1)
57,000+ troops, 82nd Airborne, 3,500 Marines. Pentagon plans 'weeks of ground ops.' No forces entered Iran yet. Apr 6 energy deadline set.
7
Houthis enter warD29 (Mar 28)
Houthis fire missiles at Israel from Yemen — new front. Threaten Bab al-Mandeb blockade. Europe's Red Sea task force on alert. Dual chokepoint risk.
6
Senior commander assassinationsD27 (Mar 26)
IDF kills IRGC Navy commander Tangsiri + intel chief Rezaei. Iran retaliates with 7 cluster BMs at Israeli cities. Tit-for-tat escalation.
5
Energy infrastructure targetedD18 (Mar 17)
Israel strikes South Pars gasfield. Iran stops attacking Qatar (strategic shift). Trump threatens Kharg Island. Global oil +60%.
4
Oil chokepoint weaponizedD13 (Mar 12)
Hormuz effectively closed. 3,000+ vessels stranded. Kharg Island hit (90 targets). Iran responds with record 51 drones at Saudi oil.
3
Naval warfareD7 (Mar 6)
CENTCOM destroys 92% of Iran's navy. Iran shifts to land-based retaliation. HRANA peak: 664 attacks in single day.
2
Mass civilian casualtiesD2 (Mar 1)
9 killed at Beit Shemesh synagogue (deadliest Israel strike). IDF responds: 480 targets + 1,200 bombs. Escalation cycle begins.
1
War begins — simultaneous multi-frontD1 (Feb 28)
US+IDF launch 1,100 targets. Iran retaliates: 88 BMs + 160 drones at Israel + massive GCC barrage across 7 countries within hours.
D44 — Talks collapse
LATESTUS targets/day (est.)
~160
Rate increasing after Trump 'Stone Ages' speech (D1: 600 → D31: 130 → D35: ~160). CENTCOM: 12,000+ combat flights. Trump vows 'extremely hard' hits for 2-3 more weeks.
CENTCOM·CNBC·CNNIDF targets/day (est.)
~170
IDF continuing strikes on Tehran, Isfahan, Bandar Abbas. B1 bridge Tehran-Karaj destroyed D34. Medical research center in Tehran hit D35. Escalation matches Trump address.
Al Jazeera·Axios·Times of IsraelCENTCOM milestone ★
12,000+ flights
Admiral Cooper: US flown 12,000+ combat flights. 92% of Iran's largest navy destroyed. ~50% of Iran's missile launchers assessed still intact (US intel D35). EA-37B Compass Call EW aircraft deployed.
CENTCOM·PJ Media·The AviationistB1 Bridge destroyed (D34)
8 killed / 95 wounded
Middle East's tallest bridge connecting Tehran-Karaj destroyed in 2 waves of strikes. US says military transport route for drone materials; Iran says civilian. IRGC threatens retaliatory strikes on Gulf bridges.
Axios·Fox News·The War Zone⚠ Iran claims F-15E shootdown
UNVERIFIED
D35: IRGC claims US fighter downed over central Iran. Media shows F-15E Strike Eagle debris (initially claimed F-35). CENTCOM has not confirmed. Multiple prior false claims this war.
The Aviationist·XinhuaIran → Kuwait (Mina Al-Ahmadi)
Refinery fires
D35: Iranian drones hit Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery again — fires in multiple units, no casualties. Retaliation for Israeli South Pars gasfield strike. Refinery hit multiple times during war.
Al Jazeera·Gulf News·KSATIran Wave 87-88 True Promise IV
Multi-GCC strikes
D32: IRGC launches Wave 87-88 — BMs & drones hit US bases in Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia. Emad, Qiam, Khorramshahr-4 BMs used. Targeted: 5th Fleet compound, Al Minhad AB, radar systems.
Al Mayadeen·TASS·PureWilayahHouthis in war
2 attacks on Israel
D29: Houthis fire missiles at Israel — first since war began. D31: 2nd attack, 2 drones intercepted. Threaten Bab al-Mandeb blockade as 'among our options.' Europe's Red Sea task force on alert.
PBS·Al Jazeera·France24·AxiosIran → Qatar
ZERO — D35
No attacks since D18 (Mar 17). Trump's South Pars threat holding. 17 consecutive zero-attack days.
CTP-ISW (confirmed)Trump national address (D34)
'Nearing completion'
20-min primetime speech. War 'nearing completion.' Will hit Iran 'extremely hard' for 2-3 weeks to 'bring them back to the Stone Ages.' Began by congratulating NASA Artemis II launch. Oil surged after.
CNBC·NPR·C-SPAN·Al JazeeraApril 6 energy deadline
3 DAYS AWAY
Trump: 'pausing Energy Plant destruction to April 6, 8 PM ET.' Threatens: power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, desalination. Iran: will 'set fire' to US troops if energy hit. No sign of deal.
Axios·CNBC·WashPostChina-Pakistan 5-point plan
NEW — D33
Immediate ceasefire, halt civilian infrastructure attacks, reopen Hormuz, start peace talks, respect UN Charter. First major-power peace framework. Pakistan continues mediation despite 'obstacles.'
Middle East Eye·SCMP·RFE·RLUK 40-country Hormuz coalition
NEW — D34
UK hosts 40 countries pledging to reopen Hormuz 'after fighting stops.' US notably absent. Only ~12 vessels/day transiting vs 138 pre-war. 71% of transits are Iran-linked ships.
Al Jazeera·Military.com·CBSPezeshkian letter to Americans
D33
Open letter: 'Which interests being served by this war?' Claims US is 'proxy for Israel.' Leaves door to diplomacy open. Araghchi: 'zero trust' in US, no negotiations.
Bloomberg·Time·Al Jazeera·CNNArgentina designates IRGC
TERRORIST — D33
First Latin American country to designate IRGC as terrorist org. Linked to 1992 Israeli Embassy & 1994 AMIA bombings. Expelled Iranian diplomat. Follows Trump directive to allies.
JTA·Al Jazeera·PressTVUK intel: Russia trained Iran
CONFIRMED
UK Defence Chief cited intelligence: Russia provided Iran with intelligence AND pre-war military training. Called it 'the hidden hand of Putin.' EU's Kallas: 'put pressure on Russia.'
CBSNews·ToI D27·EUIran killed (Health Ministry)
2,076+
26,500+ injured. 600+ schools hit. HRANA by D17: 3,114 deaths (1,354 civilian, 1,138 military). Iran Int'l D32: 4,700+ security forces killed. Medical center hit D35.
Al Jazeera·HRANA·Iran Health MinistryIsrael killed (total)
24 civilians
6,239+ injured. Houthi drones intercepted D31. Cluster munitions Tel Aviv D29.
ToI·IDF·Alma ResearchGCC killed (total)
30+ civilians
UAE:11, Kuwait:8, Bahrain:3, Saudi:2, Oman:3, Qatar:0. Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery hit multiple times. Saudi intercepting BMs regularly.
CNN·local authoritiesLebanon killed
1,247+
Lebanese Health Ministry: 1,247 killed since Israel resumed attacks Mar 2. 124 children among dead.
Lebanese Health Ministry via Al JazeeraIraq killed
96+
Mostly PMF members. KRG: 13 killed including 6 Peshmerga by Iranian BMs near Erbil (D24).
CNN·KRGUS service members killed
15
CENTCOM: 15 US killed since Feb 28. Plus 1 non-combat death. D29: 10 injured at Prince Sultan AB.
CENTCOM·Wikipedia·TimeOil price
$111+/bbl
Brent $109+/bbl. Up ~60% since war began. Biggest 1-day jump in 6 years. Saudi warns $180/bbl if Hormuz stays shut through April. 600M+ barrels at risk.
CNBC·Bloomberg·NBCUS gas prices
$4.08/gal
First time above $4 since 2022. Diesel $5.51/gal. Sapping public support for war. EIA projects Brent above $95 for 2+ months.
CNBC·CBS·TimeUS troops in region
57,000+
USS Tripoli + 3,500 Marines arrived D30. 82nd Airborne diverted from Asia-Pacific. Special ops deployed. Pentagon plans 'weeks of ground operations' — no forces entered Iran yet.
Military.com·NavyTimes·Al Jazeera·MiddleEastMonitor